Tuesday, April 8, 2014

Breaking: Detailed MCSG President Election Results

Total Votes: 1,028 

1st round: 
Rick Beckel -- 226 votes 
Rothin Datta -- 384 
Samuel Doten -- 96 
Richard Raya -- 85 
Sarah Vandelist -- 217 
Write-ins -- 20 

Second round (Write-ins eliminated): 
Rick Beckel -- 228 
Rothin Datta -- 388 
Sam Doten -- 98 
Richard Raya -- 85 
Sarah Vandelist -- 220 

Third round (Raya eliminated): 
Rick Beckel -- 236 
Rothin Datta -- 388
Sam Doten -- 121 
Sarah Vandelist -- 239 

Fourth round (Doten eliminated): 
Rick Beckel -- 267 
Rothin Datta -- 432 
Sarah Vandelist -- 280 

Fifth round (Beckel eliminated): 
Rothin Datta -- 527- 51.26% 
Sarah Vandelist -- 359- 34.9%

Some quick thoughts about my previous analysis (more analysis to come later):
  • I correctly predicted Rothin and Rick as strong candidates, and actually had (barely) picked Rothin as most likely to win.
  • I correctly predicted Raya's poor performance in a high-turnout election.
  • I far overestimated Sam Doten's strength in a high turnout election. I suspect three things may have happened:
    • Underclassmen (who he needed) didn't vote and
    • He split votes with Richard
    • He was unable to move past previous controversies in which he was embroiled. 
  • I far underestimated Sarah Vandelist's strength in a high turnout election.
    • I suspect her "vote for the only woman in the race" appeal may have been a stronger line than I could have known.

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